Box Elder, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

362
FXUS63 KUNR 020958
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
258 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog over northwestern into south central SD this morning

- Gusty northwest winds will develop this afternoon, the strongest
  winds will be over northwest SD with gusts of 40 to 45 mph.

- Light accumulating snow over the Northern Black Hills on Tuesday

- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather through the
  end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Nighttime microphysics imagery depicts swath of fog/low clouds
extending from ND into eastern SD. The fog is slowly creeping into
our half of SD with the KLEM station near the SD/ND border
reporting low clouds and decreasing visibilities over the past
couple of hours. Patchy fog should continue to develop over
northwestern into south central SD through this morning, though
it`s appearing less likely that the fog will make it as far as the
Black Hills with most recent forecast soundings showing a very
shallow moist layer near the sfc. Any fog that develops will erode
by late this morning as upper level shortwave crosses the region.

Winds will shift to the northwest late this morning as the
attendant sfc front pushes across the CWA. Weak pressure rises
behind the trof will support breezy winds with BUFKIT momentum
transfer showing the potential for gusts of 40-45kt to mix to the
sfc across northwestern SD. NBM probs show a 40-70% chance for
wind gusts to exceed 45 mph across our usual windy spots along the
Sturgis/Piedmont foothills and adjacent plains with hi-res
deterministic models showing gusts of 40-45 mph. Given the low
confidence in if gusts will reach advisory level, have opted to
hold off on issuing any headlines. In terms of precip - not
expecting too much out of this system as the bulk of the lift and
moisture will be displaced to our east. However, upslope flow
could support some light snow showers over the northern Black
Hills this afternoon with minimal accumulations expected.

Another shortwave will cross the region Tuesday, this time the
moisture and weak large scale forcing will be present over the
CWA. This will support light precip over northeastern WY into
western SD through the day and into the evening on Tuesday.
Temperatures over the plains will be too warm for snow (40-50F)
but thermal profiles over the Black Hills should support snow.
Upslope enhancement will support 1 to 3" of accumulation across
the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills.

Upper level ridge over the western US will continue to influence
weather over our neck of the woods into this weekend. High
temperatures across much of the CWA will be 10-20F above average
with slightly cooler conditions towards central SD. Thursday`s
looking to be particularly warm with highs climbing into the 60s
over the western SD plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1010 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Patchy fog and low clouds are expected to develop across the NW
SD plains after 06Z, resulting in localized MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys.
Otherwise, VFR conds are expected throughout the TAF period with
gusty northwest winds developing Monday afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...JC